(COLUMBUS, Ohio) – In a study published today in The Lancet Regional Health – Americas, Rosemary Martoma, MD, academic pediatrician at Nationwide Children’s Hospital (NCH) and lead author, describes VaxEstim, a novel statistical model developed to rapidly assess the vaccination coverage and immunity gap in an exposed population at the onset of an infectious disease outbreak.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently warned of large global measles outbreaks and updated vaccination recommendations for international travelers. High vaccination coverage is critical for measles elimination. The United States eliminated measles in 2000, although measles is still common in many parts of the world. Of the eight large United States post-elimination outbreaks, the most recent occurred after an international traveler infected with measles returned to central Ohio in the summer of 2022.
“Nearly all 85 cases in the Central Ohio outbreak occurred in unvaccinated children,” said Matthew Washam, MD, Chief of Epidemiology and Infection Prevention at Nationwide Children’s and co-author of the study. NCH’s Epidemiology team partnered with Columbus Public Health, Ohio Department of Health, and the CDC to coordinate the on-ground infectious disease response to the outbreak.
Vaccination coverage indicates whether a community is protected from vaccine-preventable diseases. The critical vaccination threshold needed to decrease the risk of an outbreak is estimated at 93%.
Because measles vaccine reporting in Ohio is not mandatory, vaccination coverage data are incomplete. The authors applied VaxEstim to the 2022 Central Ohio measles outbreak to estimate a 53% vaccination coverage and a 42% immunity gap in the exposed population at the onset of the outbreak.
“Community-level immunity gaps threaten more than two decades of measles elimination in the United States,” said Dr. Martoma. “Health departments can use VaxEstim data to support community-specific rapid responses and longer-term approaches to contain and prevent outbreaks.”
The estimates suggest there are barriers to measles vaccination in the community. Understanding the characteristics of a susceptible population can inform the efforts needed to decrease these barriers. “We know high vaccination coverage is the key to measles elimination,” said Dr. Washam.
About The Abigail Wexner Research Institute at Nationwide Children's Hospital
Named to the Top 10 Honor Roll on U.S. News & World Report’s 2023-24 list of “Best Children’s Hospitals,” Nationwide Children’s Hospital is one of America’s largest not-for-profit free-standing pediatric health care systems providing unique expertise in pediatric population health, behavioral health, genomics and health equity as the next frontiers in pediatric medicine, leading to best outcomes for the health of the whole child. Integrated clinical and research programs are part of what allows Nationwide Children’s to advance its unique model of care. As home to the Department of Pediatrics of The Ohio State University College of Medicine, Nationwide Children’s faculty train the next generation of pediatricians, scientists and pediatric specialists. The Abigail Wexner Research Institute at Nationwide Children’s Hospital is one of the Top 10 National Institutes of Health-funded free-standing pediatric research facilities in the U.S., supporting basic, clinical, translational, behavioral and population health research. The AWRI is comprised of multidisciplinary Centers of Emphasis paired with advanced infrastructure supporting capabilities such as technology commercialization for discoveries; gene- and cell-based therapies; and genome sequencing and analysis. More information is available at NationwideChildrens.org/Research.